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#volatility

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#python #AI #portfolio #optimization #algorithm
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Quant Risk-Return Analysis, Portfolio Optimization and Profitable Algo-Trading Strategies of Top 5 AI Stocks

A Deep Dive into Popular Risk-Return Gauges of Quant Finance, MPT/Black-Litterman Portfolio Optimization and Hybrid Algo-Trading Strategies (with Backtesting) of Top 5 AI Stocks: PLTR, CRM, AMD, ANET, and NVDA

#exploremore 👇

medium.com/@alexzap922/quant-r

"In a downturn, you don’t find momentum. You make it!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

In a time of volatility, uncertainty, and a lack of clarity, the most natural reaction is often the worst one: we do nothing.

We pause. We overthink. We wait for something to settle before we make a move. 

We seek clarity and wait.

We end up waiting a long time - because the irony of this is that clarity doesn’t come from waiting—it comes from moving.

That's the real secret to getting through this volatile time.

Over the past eight posts, we’ve explored what it takes to lead into the future when everything feels unstable: replacing fear with action, and nostalgia with vision. Challenging inertia through innovation, and stress through strategic resilience.  Leading with agility over indecision, and thinking globally, not locally. Things like that.

But none of that matters if momentum is missing. Because without motion and moving forward, there is no forward.

That's why you need to imprint this idea in your mind. “You don’t find momentum. You make it.” The future doesn’t reward the ones who paused the longest. It rewards the ones who moved—even just a little—when no one else was.

And here's a secret you should know - progress isn’t always dramatic.

Sometimes it’s quiet, compounding, and invisible to everyone except those who kept showing up. Let me be blunt  - inaction is a decision. And it’s usually the wrong one. When volatility strikes, many leaders freeze - the exact wrong thing to do. But the organizations that keep moving build momentum that outlasts the downturn.

Why do you need momentum, even if you don't know where you are going?

→ It allows for achievements – small wins fuel bigger moves
→ It shifts your mindset – which is what you need
→ It enables refinement – progress improves as you move
→ It reveals direction – showing key trends

The key isn’t to make a massive leap. It’s to take the first step—and then another. And another. Soon you are walking into tomorrow - and then running.

You are already well into the race to the future, while the rest haven't even figured out where the starting line is.

---

Futurist Jim Carroll is already well into the Acceptance stage of the 7 Stages of Economic Grief because he knows that it is the only sure way to deal with the relentless uncertainty that already defines 2025.

#Momentum #Action #Volatility #Future #Progress #Strategy #Clarity #Leadership #Resilience #Adaptation

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

"The future rewards those who adapt under pressure, not those who break because of it" - Futurist Jim Carroll

Over the last five days, I’ve shared how we lead ourselves and our organizations through this moment of global volatility—one shaped by economic uncertainty, political instability, and cultural retreat from the future.

Beginning by reaffirming belief in progress, even when it feels stalled

Confronting fear with action

Challenging nostalgia with vision

Spotlighting innovation as the antidote to inertia

Emphasizing the importance of thinking across time horizons—managing today while preparing for tomorrow

But there's something deeper that sits underneath all of that: pressure..
That’s the real test—managing this moment. Keeping our heads on straight. Not letting the negativity consume us or define our future. If there’s one constant through every downturn, disruption, or crisis, it’s this: stress is the defining force of the moment. And how we respond to that stress—organizationally, personally, and strategically—determines whether we fall back, freeze up, or forge forward into what’s next.

That’s why today, it’s not just about planning for the future.

It’s about learning to adapt under pressure.

Every moment of disruption applies pressure. And pressure reveals everything. It reveals which organizations and individuals have foundations that flex, and which ones crumble. It reveals leaders who focus forward—and those who fold under volatility.

Right now, we’re not just navigating an economic downturn. We’re navigating a world defined by compounding stress—market stress, leadership stress, and system stress. But stress, when met with strategy, becomes fuel for the future.

I’ve written about this before: “It’s in our response to volatility that our future is defined.”

The most future-ready companies don’t panic. They channel pressure into progress. They don’t crumble under stress—they restructure, refocus, and realign. They transform pressure into precision—cutting noise, not capacity. They rethink agility, not just in structure but in mindset. They use stress as a forcing function—to do what needed doing all along.

My advice is clear: You don’t rebuild your organization for the next crisis. You rebuild during this one—for the world that follows.

Stress is unavoidable. But breaking is not.

**#Adaptation** **#Pressure** **#Resilience** **#Stress** **#Future** **#Crisis** **#Leadership** **#Growth** **#Strategy** **#Volatility**

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

#30DayChartChallenge Día 10: ¡Buceando en la Distribución del VIX! 🌊

En lugar de solo ver la línea del VIX, hoy analizamos su "distribución de probabilidad" por Presidencia de EE.UU. (Clinton -> Trump 2º). ¡La forma lo es todo!

Usando #rstats y #ggplot2, estas densidades facetadas nos permiten investigar:
* Modos Dominantes: ¿Cuál era el nivel "normal" de VIX (el pico más alto)? ¿Cambió mucho?
* Multi-modalidad: ¿Hay evidencia de múltiples estados de volatilidad (picos secundarios) dentro de un mismo mandato? 🤔
* Riesgo de Cola: ¿Qué tan probable era el "pánico" (VIX > 35)? ¡Compara las colas derechas!

Estos patrones reflejan los distintos regímenes de volatilidad y la percepción del riesgo sistémico. No es solo el nivel, ¡sino la "estructura" de la incertidumbre lo que importa!

Datos: Yahoo Finance via #quantmod.
📂Código: t.ly/kikdo

"Inertia feels safe. Until it isn’t. Innovation feels risky. Until it wins." - Futurist Jim Carroll

Uncertainty rewards the inventive, not the indifferent.

Recessions test everything—strategy, structure, and above all, mindset.

You are going through all that right now with the wild whiplash of this moment in time. You can't easily define strategies straight in a world in which one moment the world is up and the next is down. You can't figure out a path forward when the path keeps changing. You can't plant a flag on a foundation of certainty where there is none.

But what you can do is commit to investing in your future through innovation.

Think about it - when the world turns volatile, most companies do the typical thing - they freeze. They cut everything. Delay everything. Protect what was. Go into a mode of delay. But others take a different route: they innovate—not recklessly, but intentionally. They adapt their offerings, reframe their markets, and lean into change.

History tells us who wins.

In past downturns, the most resilient companies continued to invest in R&D, product development, and digital transformation, even as they restructured costs elsewhere. They embraced frugal innovation—creating smarter, leaner, more relevant solutions with limited resources. They used the moment to reimagine offerings for evolving customer needs.

They didn’t innovate in spite of the crisis. They innovated because of it.

These companies weren’t reckless. They were strategic.

They used volatility as a forcing function to rethink how they deliver value—and to whom.

And the results speak for themselves - they:

- captured market share: Outpaced competitors by staying relevant during volatility.

- deepened customer loyalty: Met changing needs with smarter, faster solutions.

- reimagined offerings: Pivoted products and services to fit the moment.

- streamlined structures: Transformed operations to move with greater speed.

- accelerated disruption: Fast-tracked innovation that would’ve taken years otherwise.

Meanwhile, those that chose inertia? Most never caught up. Because innovation isn’t a luxury for good times. It’s a necessity for what comes next.

In the end, volatility favors those willing to reinvent—while inertia quietly takes the rest out of the game.

Which side of the curve will you be on?

---

Futurist Jim Carroll spoke on resilience and innovation in uncertainty at dozens of leadership meetings post ’01, again in ’08, and guided organizations again in ’20. He’s developed a comprehensive overview of how to move forward, not back, during an era of uncertainty. It’s being shared here and documented at tomorrow.jimcarroll.com

**#Innovation** **#Uncertainty** **#Resilience** **#Adaptation** **#Strategy** **#Crisis** **#Volatility** **#Future** **#Growth** **#Reinvention**

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

"World-class innovators should always remember that short term volatility need not define long term success" - Futurist Jim Carroll

The most powerful thing I've ever seen is when the CEO of the global food services powerhouse Compass Group went on stage just before I did, in 2008, just as the global economy was melting down.

You had to be there.

I was there to follow his message to share my insight on the future and innovation - and that day, all of a sudden, everything about the future and innovation had changed, in a very significant fashion.

Here's what unfolded.

The headlines that morning were pretty stark and ugly.

He opened the event  - a day of meetings for his leadership team of several hundred - looked at his audience - and said this in his very first moment: "We can panic. We can do nothing. Or we can innovate, change, and adapt."

Sitting in the audience, I quickly began reworking my slide deck to catch the new tone of the day. The room was dark, in more ways than one; the pre-event chatter was ominous; people looked nervous and worried.

The opening section of my deck - which I still have to this day (I have all of them!) - was quickly being locked into a new key theme. If they had asked me to talk about the future and innovation, then I was going to speak about that in the context of this sudden new world of a different future and a new sort of innovation!

I listened intently to his talk and his core message, modifying my slide deck furiously all the time.

Then, I went on stage and delivered.

I started with an entirely new section to my slide deck - that I had finished off just moments earlier - noting that what they needed to do right now was to establish a relentless focus on growth - and that I was going to explain why.

#Innovation #Resilience #Leadership #Volatility #Perspective #Opportunity #Economics #Growth #Adaptation #Uncertainty

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/03/daily-i

"Nothing tightens the purse like uncertainty!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

As the saying goes, 'We're not in Kansas anymore.' But it certainly feels like it's the fall of 2008! Time to roll out some older brochure copy!

What's up? This is the topic that I found myself covering on stage from 2009 to about 2012, and I fully expect to be doing it again. Just yesterday, I bumped the topic up on my keynote list!

One of the interesting things about the industry I am in is that it can be a bellwether for the broader economy. As consumer confidence crashes, so too does the number of conferences and events. Travel cutbacks kick in, spending is put under a microscope, and leaders get nervous. Oh, and people who have been recently laid off are too busy trying to find work to attend an event somewhere. I had 108 rounds of golf last year. I suspect I'll beat that record!

What's up? You are probably watching the same headlines I'm seeing.
Consumer confidence is shattering.

Fears of a recession are spiraling.

Look, I don't want to seem like Chicken Little screaming that the sky is falling.
But speaking about chickens, let's talk about the price of eggs. If we go back just a little bit in the past, it seems like all that people wanted was cheaper eggs!

Ya, um, nope.

The situation has gotten so dire that Waffle House has begun adding a surcharge for every egg they sell.

Did you know there is a site in which you can track the price of eggs? It's at
pantryandlarder.com/eggspensiv

Things are wild out there! In Denver, they're suggesting that people rent chickens to get their eggs. 

it's surprisingly easy to do this. Just go to RentTheChicken.com

Want to know something wild? They might need to solve the egg problem by sourcing them from that new enemy, Canada!

This seems rather eggsciting!

----

Futurist Jim Carroll usually has yogurt for breakfast.

**#Uncertainty** **#Economics** **#Recession** **#Innovation** **#Volatility** **#Opportunity** **#Leadership** **#Resilience** **#Transformation** **#Future**

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/02/daily-i

At Bloomberg, Nia-Malika Henderson neatly summarizes the differences between Biden and Trump and what is at stake in the 2024 election:
“The choice in November isn’t between two old men.
It’s between an unhinged, wannabe dictator and a stable, well-meaning leader who believes in America’s bedrock principals of freedom and democracy.”

Trump has manic crazy energy; President Biden is wise, weathered, tough, and experienced.

In a fair fight, Biden stands more than a good chance of winning.

Unfortunately, this fight is anything but fair.
Mainstream news media appears to be actively #rigging the outcome for Trump

To that point, last weekend, instead of focusing on Donald Trump’s threats to be a dictator on day one of his “presidency” when/if he takes office in 2025, plans for mass deportations and concentration camps, and his gangster-like extortion of NATO and telling Putin to invade Europe,
the #NewYorkTimes wrote this fawning profile:

"Mr. Trump, by contrast, does not appear to be suffering the effects of time in such visible ways. Mr. Trump often dyes his hair and appears unnaturally tan. He is heavyset and tall, and he uses his physicality to project strength in front of crowds. When he takes the stage at rallies, he basks in adulation for several minutes, dancing to an opening song, and then holds forth in speeches replete with macho rhetoric and bombast that typically last well over an hour, a display of stamina."

In every election: lots feel dissatisfied with their choices. Our press overlooks this.

Come November, though, any lack of enthusiasm will cede to the reality of the #volatility of a second Trump presidency.

Not that polls this far out are very meaningful. But polls are a huge asset for media organizations that want to do #horserace all the time.

Instead, they should focus like a laser on the stakes of the election.

salon.com/2024/02/14/amass-a-r

Salon.com · The longest election ever is paved with a string of losses for RepublicansBy Chauncey DeVega

Looking forward to the #FIRN community of academics visiting nipaluna #hobart for the 2023 Financial Research Network Annual Conference and #PhD symposium in November. Welcome to lutruwita #tasmania and to the University of Tasmania! Impressive line up of papers lnkd.in/g6ugxcSD Thank you Elvira, Marco, Nelson & the organisation and review committees for creating this great event #university #finance #ESG #volatility #trading #behaviour #regulation #bonds #funds #realestate #liquidity #innovation #institutions