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#EarthSystemModel

0 posts0 participants0 posts today
Public *
Prof. Tatiana Ilyina

What if we could start a weather simulation and let it run over seasons, years, decades, centuries ...
This is at the heart of the ICON-Seamless Project developing a new #EarthSystemModel suitable for #weather and #climate forecasts.

This new ICON-XPP model is our working horse for the upcoming CMIP7 climate projections. It will also remain the horse we are working on 😉

At an all-hands workshop at the Seewetteramt #Hamburg last week we discussed progress and challenges.
@DeutscherWetterdienst

Dr. Barbara Früh of the German Weather Service presenting the new project CAP7, which she coordinates. The project will enable German contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Seven.
Public
Prof. Tatiana Ilyina

Please spread this #Job Opening in my group at Universität #Hamburg: Postdoctoral | #Research Associate in the Project “CAP7”.

The focus is to enhance the representation of ocean biogeochemical processes, carbon-climate feedbacks, and ocean carbon storage under changing emissions in the new generation #EarthSystemModel ICON-XPP.

These novel simulations will contribute to #CMIP7 and the next #IPCC assessment of #climatechange.

See how to apply 👇
uni-hamburg.de/stellenangebote

www.uni-hamburg.deAusschreibung
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Public *
Prof. Tatiana Ilyina

Acceleration of #climatechange is taking place due to our failure to cut increasing CO2 emissions.

Any impact of Arctic coastal #permafrost erosion on the global #climate through increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations until 2100 is comparatively small.

Yet, this new #EarthSystemModel component allows for a better quantification of the carbon budget, necessary for carbon monitoring under #decarbonisation .

Read more in this press release 👇
uni-hamburg.de/en/newsroom/pre
#ilyinaScience

www.uni-hamburg.deIn years to come, the Arctic Ocean will absorb less CO2 than expected
Public
Prof. Tatiana Ilyina

In a #newpaper from my group, led by David Nielsen, we incorporated coastal permafrost as a new component of an #EarthSystemModel.

This allowed us to quantify that #coastal #permafrost erosion weakens the Arctic Ocean #CO2 uptake from the atmosphere by 7-14%.

This exerts a positive biogeochemical feedback on #climate, increasing atmospheric CO2 by 1–2 TgC yr−1 per °C of increase in global surface air temperature.

Find out more here👇
nature.com/articles/s41558-024
#ilyinaScience

A figure displaying changes in CO2 uptake due to erosion of coastal permafrost from Nielsen et al. 2024. a, Annual changes in the Arctic Ocean’s uptake of atmospheric CO2 due to coastal permafrost erosion. The shading represents the range of uncertainty stemming from varying OM permafrost characteristics in our simulations, while the solid line represents the mean response. b, Total Inner Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake without coastal erosion (lines) and with coastal erosion (shade). c, Evolution of the Inner Arctic Ocean’s sea-ice area.
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Public
Prof. Tatiana Ilyina

What happens after a snowball Earth melts?

With the new #EarthSystemModel ICON, we find that the supergreenhouse climate was not necessarily a stable and hot climate over hundreds of thousands of years. It is also possible that the temperatures were moderate and even declined rapidly, on a time scale of just a few thousand years, in response to changes in the ocean C-cycle.

Find out in this news piece👇
mpimet.mpg.de/en/communication

with more details in our new paper👇
doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-478

mpimet.mpg.deWhat happens after a snowball Earth melts?When a snowball Earth deglaciates, the planet transitions rapidly into a hot "supergreenhouse" climate that persists for a hundred thousand years or more - according to the classic snowball Earth theory. In a new publication, MPI-M scientists Lennart Ramme, Tatiana Ilyina and Jochem Marotzke show that this concept is too simplified, as the ocean transformations after a snowball Earth drive strong carbon cycle dynamics, which alter the evolution of atmospheric CO2. In fact, scenarios ranging from a rapid decline to a further intensification of the supergreenhouse climate are possible, depending on the chemical conditions at the start of the snowball Earth deglaciation.
Public
Prof. Tatiana Ilyina

Once upon a time, only about 650 million years ago, our Earth was a snowball. What was the aftermath #greenhouse #climate triggering deglaciation and the ocean's role in it?

We addressed this intriguing scientific question via a set of #EarthSystemModel experiments in the new Nature Communication paper "Moderate greenhouse climate and rapid carbonate formation after Marinoan snowball Earth" led by Lennart Ramme within his PhD project.

doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-478

The figure summarises the five processes of the carbon cycle that lead to air-sea CO2 exchange in the aftermath of a snowball Earth as quantified in this study. These are: inorganic formation of carbonates, ocean warming, the reappearance of the biological carbon pump, dilution by inflow of meltwater, and equilibration of atmosphere and ocean. The effect of the processes on atmospheric CO2 (red text represents an increase and blue text represents a reduction of the atmospheric CO2 concentration) and a rough estimate of the process time scale is given. The quantification is based on the ICON-ESM simulations and additional box model calculations.
Public
Prof. Tatiana Ilyina

Have a look at our simulation of the air-sea #CO2 flux and surface wind speed in a high-resolution #EarthSystemModel model ICON 👇
youtu.be/63NZSPjxv6w

I find September particularly fascinating in this animation. A hurricane in the Western Atlantic entirely messes up the CO2 flux. Here, the immediate effect is that the hurricane enhances the outgassing of CO2. Behind it, the flux swaps the sign and there is uptake of CO2.

YouTubeAir-sea CO2 flux and surface wind speed simulated with high-resolution HAMOCC@ICONBy Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum
#ilyinaScience
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Public
Prof. Tatiana Ilyina

With my group, I study a #CDR method of artificially increasing ocean C-sink by adding alkalinity.

In an #EarthSystemModel
large amounts of alkalinity boost the oceans' capacity to absorb CO2.
This comes at a price of unprecedented perturbations in #biogeochemistry with unknown implications for marine life.

Learn more in our papers
doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057981
doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068576
doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077847
doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000620
doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.624
doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001634

#ilyinaScience
Continued thread
Public *
Prof. Tatiana Ilyina

It is challenging to represent the #CoastalOcean #CarbonCycle in an #EarthSystemModel.

Due to a relatively coarse spatial resolution, #global models do not resolve the complex coastal #biogeochemical dynamics. #Regional models don't get the open-coastal ocean exchange at their boundaries.

Find out how we address this challenge with a telescoping #HighResolution #model:

mas.to/@TatianaIlyina/10944477

Here is the link to the paper:
doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002789

mas.toDr. Tatiana Ilyina 🌍🌊 O=C=O 💙💛 (@TatianaIlyina@mas.to)Our #paper led by Moritz Mathis on #seamless #modeling of the #coastal #ocean #CarbonCycle is featured as Editor's Highlight by #Eos #science #newsmagazine of #AGU. 'Substantial Advance Towards a Global Coastal Carbon Model': https://eos.org/editor-highlights/substantial-advance-towards-a-global-coastal-carbon-model #hereon @helmholtz@bonn.social @MPI_Meteo@wisskomm.social 1/4
#ilyinaScience
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