NASA doubles odds of Moon hitting Near-Earth Asteroid [2024 YR4].
"Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated [2024 YR4]’s chance of impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032 from 1.7 to 3.8 percent," the agency said.
Aardscheerder 2024 YR4 is vermoedelijk afkomstig uit de hoofdgordel
Astronomen hebben met behulp van het GMOS-instrument (Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph) aan de Gemini Zuid-telescoop bepaald dat de recent gevonden aardscheerder 2024 YR4 een van de grootste objecten in de recente geschiedenis is dat op de Maan kan ins
https://www.kuuke.nl/aardscheerder-2024-yr4-is-vermoedelijk-afkomstig-uit-de-hoofdgordel/
In the UK, you can now watch @Chrislintott and I do our best version of Ted Lasso and talk about football (soccer) and potentially hazardous asteroids. In particular, we were chatting about the case of 2024 YR4 https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m002b26m #astrodon #2024YR4
Sky & Telescope covers the case of #2024YR4 and its potential lunar impact in 2032:
https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/near-earth-asteroid-2024-yr4-might-aim-for-the-moon/
Here are three orthogonal views of a convex shape model of asteroid 2024 YR4 from the paper - a top down view (X-Y) and 2 side views (X-Z and Y-Z).
The asteroid is spinning around the Z axis.
So, what are the physical processes responsible for this flattish shape? Was the asteroid more spherical in the distant past?
I read people being surprised that #2024YR4 is shaped like an irregular block.
Such a shape is typical for small rapidly-spinning asteroids, which are held together by tensile strength rather than by gravity.
For a similarly-sized comparison, consider 2015 HM10: https://public.nrao.edu/news/radar-2015-hm10/
Scientists are learning more about the roughly 200-foot asteroid 2024 YR4, dubbed the "city killer."
@Futurism reports the asteroid is shaped like a saucer: https://flip.it/VyYm_b
Die #NASA korregierte ihre Berrechnung zu #2024YR4. Es ist eher unwahrscheinlich, dass dieser Asteroid auf die Erde fällt. Es ist eher wahrscheinlich (3,8 %), dass er auf dem Mond fällt.
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/li.3232770 https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/
The discovery and characterization of Earth-crossing asteroid #2024YR4: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.05694 -> Astronomers Trace Earth-Crossing Asteroid to Surprising Origin: https://keckobservatory.org/2024-yr4/ (namely that it's a solid, stony type that likely originated from an asteroid family in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region not previously known to produce Earth-crossing asteroids).
Discussion of the lunar impact risk corridor for #2024YR4 in 2032: https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/2024_yr4_moon_impact/112132507 .
3 to 4% chance of lunar impact, with a few tenths of a percent on the far side and the rest on the near side.
But almost all on the day side; so the initial flash from an impact by #2024YR4 would be competing with the brightness of the entire rest of the Moon.
An impact of #asteroid #2024YR4 on the #Moon could be visible from Earth, if it impacts the side that faces us. Additional hazards not mentioned in articles I've seen so far would affect planning for #NASA #Artemis landing missions and Lunar Gateway space station (not yet launched). Some ejecta/debris from the impact would leave the Moon's weak gravity and could threaten Earth or our satellites weeks or months after impact. #astronomy #PlanetaryDefense #PlanetaryDefence #LowFlyingRocks #space
"Asteroid will miss Earth — but may set off lunar light show" by @cosmiclog / @alanboyle - #Asteroid #2024YR4 orbit is understood well enough now that it will not impact Earth in 2032. But it's still close. A lunar impact remains possible, currently at 3.8% probability. The article paints a picture of just a light show visible from Earth. But there are more potential hazards. https://cosmiclog.com/2025/04/07/asteroid-will-miss-earth-but-may-set-off-lunar-light-show/ #astronomy #PlanetaryDefense #PlanetaryDefence #LowFlyingRocks #space
https://www.europesays.com/fr/8813/ Et maintenant, l’astéroïde 2024 YR4 menace d’entrer en collision avec la Lune ! Faut-il s’inquiéter pour notre planète ? #2024YR4 #2032 #astéroïde #astronomie #ciel #collision #cratère #danger #Espace #FR #France #hausse #impact #lune #NASA #orbite #planète #probabilité #risque #Satellite #Science #ScienceAndTechnology #Sciences #SciencesEtTechnologies #scientifiques #Technologies #Technology #Terre
Good news: #Asteroid #2024YR4 won't hit Earth in 2032. Potentially better news: It might hit the moon, sparking a scientifically interesting but harmless light show. Stay tuned... https://cosmiclog.com/2025/04/07/asteroid-will-miss-earth-but-may-set-off-lunar-light-show/ #Space #Moon
#2024YR4 work by the asteroid group at Helsinki.
QT University of Helsinki @helsinki.fi
2025 April 4
Pohjoismainen teleskooppi NOT oli avainasemassa selvitettäessä potentiaalisesti vaarallisen asteroidin todennäköisyyttä törmätä Maahan.
Asteroidi 2024 YR4:llä on tällä hetkellä 0,001 prosentin todennäköisyys Maahan, mutta jopa noin 4 prosentin todennäköisyys Kuuhun.
https://www.helsinki.fi/fi/uutiset/avaruus/asteroidin-tormaysuhka-arviot-maahan-ja-kuuhun-tarkentuneet [ Finnish ]
https://www.helsinki.fi/en/news/space/asteroid-impact-threat-estimates-improved-earth-and-moon [ English ]
Noticias sobre #2024YR4, el asteroide que activó el sistema de aviso de defensa plantearía. Con observaciones del JWST se reestima su tamaño entre 53 y 67 metros. Difícilmente impactará con la Tierra 
, pero con la Luna la probabilidad es de un 3,8%
https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/
Aumentó levemente la probabilidad de que el asteroide 2024 YR4 impacte la Luna. Ahora la probabilidad es de 3,8% según la NASA https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/ #2024yr4 #impacto #luna #impact #moon #asteroide #asteroid #astronomia #astronomy #neo #nea
NASA’s Webb telescope captures photos of the asteroid that won’t hit Earth in 2032.
@AssociatedPress reports on the asteroid 2024 YR4: https://flip.it/6O2d.1
Confirmation from NASA in https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/ that with the new Webb plus additional ground-based astrometry the impact probability of #2024YR4 for the Moon has risen to 3.8% or 1:26. By mid-month ground-based observers will lose sight of the asteroid but Webb will have one more look in May.
