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#unemployment

6 posts6 participants0 posts today

GOLDMAN SACHS SEES TRUMP TARIFFS SPIKING INFLATION, STUNTING GROWTH AND RAISING RECESSION RISKS

- aggressive duties from #trump to raise #inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill

- “we continue to believe the risk from April 2 #tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed"

- They raised its forecast for inflation this year to 3.5%, cut its #GDP outlook to just 1% and raised its #unemployment view to 4.5%

cnbc.com/2025/03/30/tariffs-to

CNBCGoldman Sachs sees Trump tariffs spiking inflation, stunting growth and raising recession risksA broad, negative impact will be felt in the economy when the new trade moves are enacted, the Goldman economic team believes.

The #JobMarket Is Frozen
#Unemployment is low, but workers aren’t quitting and businesses aren’t #hiring. What’s going on?
The answer is that two seemingly incompatible things are happening in the #job market at the same time. Even as the unemployment rate has hovered around 4 percent for more than three years, the pace of hiring has slowed to levels last seen shortly after the #GreatRecession, when the unemployment rate was nearly twice as high.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/
archive.ph/Nx8G8

The Atlantic · The Job Market Is FrozenBy Rogé Karma

Today in Labor History March 21, 1960: South African police opened fire on peaceful black protesters, killing 69 and wounding 180 in the Sharpeville massacre. Many were shot in the back as they fled. Thousands had been out protesting the hated pass laws, when they decided to march on the police station. The town of Sharpeville had high unemployment and poverty. Its residents had been forcibly moved there from the neighboring town of Topville in 1958. Passbooks were used by the Apartheid regime to control the movement of black residents and to enforce segregation.

"[S]tatistical inference is intrinsically conservative: an AI predicts the future by looking at its data about the past, and when that prediction is also an automated decision, fed to a Chaplainesque reverse-centaur trying to keep pace with a torrent of machine judgments, the prediction becomes a directive, and thus a self-fulfilling prophecy:
(...)
AIs want the future to be like the past, and AIs make the future like the past. If the training data is full of human bias, then the predictions will also be full of human bias, and then the outcomes will be full of human bias, and when those outcomes are copraphagically fed back into the training data, you get new, highly concentrated human/machine bias:
(...)
By firing skilled human workers and replacing them with spicy autocomplete, Musk is assuming his final form as both the kind of boss who can be conned into replacing you with a defective chatbot and as the fast-talking sales rep who cons your boss. Musk is transforming key government functions into high-speed error-generating machines whose human minders are only the payroll to take the fall for the coming tsunami of robot fuckups.

This is the equivalent to filling the American government's walls with asbestos, turning agencies into hazmat zones that we can't touch without causing thousands to sicken and die:"

pluralistic.net/2025/03/18/asb

pluralistic.netPluralistic: AI can’t do your job (18 Mar 2025) – Pluralistic: Daily links from Cory Doctorow

Today's "I'm laid off and bored" project.

Figured a torii gate for my desk would be really nice. So why spend $10 and buy one when I could 1) Pinch the skin between my thumb and finger between a hammer and chisel. 2) Make a mess everywhere. 3) Aggravate my lower back pain by bending over chiseling. 4) Realize how much of a pain in the ass cutting a mortice in a round dowel is.

Thankfully wood filler exists. 🤣

Today in Labor History March 11, 1811: Luddites attacked looms near Nottingham, England, because automation was threatening their jobs. At the time, workers were suffering from high unemployment, declining wages, an “endless” war with France and food scarcity. On March 11, they smashed machines in Nottingham and demonstrated for job security and higher wages. The protests and property destruction spread across a 70-mile area of England, reaching Manchester. The government sent troops to protect the factories and made machine-breaking punishable by death.

#Reeves and Kendall's welfare benefit changes

PIP will be frozen for one year
It will be harder to qualify for this, too

UC will rise for those judged to be looking for work, but for those who are too ill to look for work, then. .....

THEIR BENEFIT WILL BE CUT !

#unemployment
#welfarebenefits

Up to one million people will be adversely affected, and some of these people will die.

I do not say this lightly